投资是一个可以迅速检验认知的地方，需要理性的分析，同时摈弃想赢怕输的巨大拖累。投资又不太服从所谓的权威和经验，而会重点奖赏那些聪明勤奋、认知到位又愿意正确承受风险的选手。
我们看到世界发生了巨大的变化。移动互联网在过去二十年里真正把地球变成了村子——飞机和轮船的速度并没有翻倍，但网络的力量却深入到了每个角落。语言不再是巨大的障碍，爆炸性新闻顷刻之间传遍全球。人工智能更是移动互联网的高峰，引领着未来的投资主题。
百年未遇之大变局之下，预测的难度大大提升。比如特朗普上台以后的关税政策，对加拿大和墨西哥打响第一枪，有谁想到了?特朗普家族纷纷“发币”，更是脑洞大开。美债融资成本的高涨的与人民币融资成本的降低，留下了巨大的未来操作空间。黄金白银为代表的贵金属持续上涨，传统分析框架已经无法解释，这深刻地反映出大家对美元为代表的信用货币越发不信任。中国表现出了巨大韧性，印度等国家都在重新审视与东方大国的关系。
最近若干年，我们在抱怨过年越发没有“年味”，今年可能有过之而无不及。“年味”需要人群的集聚、时间的投入、对仪式感的重视。现在这一切变得成本高昂。随着五零后与六零后对过年主导权的慢慢失去，春节正变得不是那么特别的一个长假。与此同时，资产的比价关系也发生了巨大变化。邮票早已跌落，白酒遭遇寒冬。某房地产巨头在春节前的一股脑信息披露，代表着房地产面临巨大的转型。信息技术为代表的新质生产力有巨大的吸金效应，比特币、黄金持续火爆，预示着下一轮财富分配的浪潮越演愈烈，资产管理行业不可不察。
我们不难看到几个现象：首先，移动互联网冲击之下，财富和机会正在向头部公司集中，全世界向少数国家集中，向少数人集中。正是看到这一趋势，中国坚持公平与效率并行的原则，社会保持了持续稳定，赢得了发展先机。其次，全世界不存在“躺平”之说。“躺平”之所以感官强烈，是因为自媒体的渲染;试问哪个奋力拼搏的大佬会天天嚷嚷呢?第三，发现机会并采取行动非常重要。欧盟最近十年的经济数据不温不火，但是柏林房价却借助各种利好因素上涨了300%以上。
我们需要告诉自己什么呢?
1、不要被甚嚣尘上的财富故事影响了对自身的判断。
“OFFICIAL TRUMP”首秀一日之内最高上涨便超过400倍，可是我听到的真实故事却是有人因此一夜之间500万美元变成200万美元。投资更多地是一种有准备、有承受能力的埋伏，而不是孤注一掷式的仓促赌博。比特币创出了新高，可是多少人在其中巨大的波动面前清仓出局。认真地掂量一下自己，努力提高正确承担风险的能力，在各种复杂的关联中思考下一个机会在哪里，可能更加重要。美国先从美洲开始“发难”，瞄准拉丁美洲的非法移民，而不是越过太平洋，这就给我们有竞争力的出口企业更多的布局机会。但是拉长看，美国中期趋势可能仍是“美国优先”。
2、注意若干的方法。
一是认真分析哪些资产被真正低估和高估。比如前几年商业地产与住宅物业的对比;比如去年三季度以来的硬科技企业;比如现在的黄金。美股上涨了那么多年，现在还需要继续压上重注吗?中国优质资产一直会这么便宜吗?气候变化、环保摇摆、“左右”之争，既体现撕裂，又蕴藏机会。
二是要敢于下场，并且看准下重手。全世界范围的流动性充裕，导致有价值的核心资产，价值重估的周期在缩短。
三是制定针对波动的预案。信息传播有自我加强效应，资产价格也会“不撞南墙不回头”、“不见兔子不撒鹰”。前面说过，全世界优秀的人其实和我们一样努力，那么我们不经风雨，哪里会见彩虹?
3、向优秀的人学习。
我们或许要重新思考，人与人之间的差距之大，有时候是否可能超过人与猴子的差距。另一句流行的话是：即使全速前进，也可能是原地踏步。我们摆脱原地踏步的最大路径是向优秀的人学习，并在若干领域实现“青出于蓝而胜于蓝”。这方面，DEEPSEEK给我们做出了示范。
2025是中国的蛇年，也是45的平方。
2025: NoProgressis Regression,Press Onward with Courage
Shao Jiamin
Investment is a place where cognition can be quickly tested. It requires rational analysis and the abandonment of the huge burden of wanting to win and fearing to lose. Investment is not very obedient to so-called authority and experience, and focuses on rewarding those players who aresmart, diligent, cognition-aware and willing to take risks correctly.
We have seen great changes in the world. Mobile Internet has truly turned the earth into a village in the past 20 years - the speed of airplanes and ships has not doubled, but the power of the Internet has penetrated into every corner. Language is no longer a huge obstacle, and explosive news spreads around the world in an instant. Artificial intelligence is the peak of mobile Internet, leading the investment theme of the future.
Under the great changes that have not been seen in a century, the future holds more uncertainties. For example, Trump's tariff policy after taking office fired the first shotagainst Canada and Mexico. Who thought of it? The Trump family "issued coins" one after another, which is even more brain-opening. The rising cost of US debt financing and the decline in the cost of RMB financing have left huge room for future operations. Precious metals represented by gold and silver are rising in both negative and positive aspects, which can no longer be explained by the traditional analysis framework. This deeply reflects that people are increasingly distrusting credit currencies represented by the US dollar. China has shown great resilience, and even India has to re-examine its relationship with the Eastern power.
In recent years, we have been complaining that the Chinese New Year is becoming less and less "flavorful", and this year may be even worse. The "flavor" requires the gathering of people, the investment of time, and the emphasis on the sense of ritual. Now all this has become costly. With the gradual loss of the dominance of the Chinese New Year by the post-50s and post-60s, the Spring Festival is becoming a not-so-special long holiday. At the same time, the price ratio of assets has also changed dramatically. Stamps have long fallen, and liquor has encountered a cold winter. The information disclosure of one real estate giant before the Spring Festival represents a huge transformation facing real estate. The huge money-absorbing effect of the new quality productivity represented by information technology, and the continued popularity of Bitcoin and gold, indicate that the next wave of wealth distribution is intensifying, and the asset management industry cannot ignore it.
It is not difficult to see several phenomena: First, under the impact of mobile Internet, wealth and opportunities are concentrating on leading companies, a few countries and a few people around the world. It is precisely because of this trend that China adheres to the principle of fairness and efficiency, and the society has maintained sustained stability and won the first opportunity for development. Secondly, there is no such thing as "lying flat" in the world. The reason why "lying flat" is so strong is because of the exaggeration of self-media; which big boss who works hard will shout every day? Third, it is very important to find opportunities and take action. The economic data of the European Union in the past decade has been tepid, completely overshadowed by China and the United States, but Berlin's housing prices have risen by more than 300% with the help of various favorable factors.
What do we need to tell ourselves?
1. Don't let the wealth stories that are rampant affect your judgment of yourself.
The highest increase of "OFFICIAL TRUMP" in one day was more than 400 times, but the real story I heard was that someone turned 5 million US dollars into 2 million US dollars overnight. Wealth is more of an ambush with preparation and tolerance, rather than a hasty gamble of all-outbets. Bitcoin has hit a new high, but how many people have cleared their positions in the face of huge fluctuations. It may be more important to carefully weigh yourself, strive to improve your ability to take risks correctly, and think about where the next opportunity is in various complex connections. The United States started to "clean up the door" in the Americas, targeting illegal immigrants in Latin America, instead of crossing the Pacific Ocean, which gave our competitive export companies more layout opportunities. But in the long run, the medium-term trend of the United States is still "America First".
2. Pay attention to several methods.
First, carefully analyze which assets are truly undervalued and overvalued. For example, the comparisonbetween commercial real estate and residential properties in the past few years; for example, hard technology companies since the third quarter of last year; for example, gold now. The U.S. stock market has been bullish for so many years, do we still need to continue tobetheavily? Will China's high-quality assets always be so cheap? Climate change, environmental protection swings, and the "left-right" dispute reflect both divisions and opportunities.
Second, we must dare to get out and see the heavy hand. The abundant liquidity worldwide has led to a shortening of the cycle of revaluation of valuable core assets.
The third is to formulate a plan for fluctuations. Information dissemination has a self-reinforcing effect, and asset prices will "not turn back until they hit the south wall" and "not release the eagle until they see the rabbit". As mentioned earlier, the best people in the world are actually working as hard as we are, so how can we see the rainbow without going through the wind and rain?
3. Learn from excellent people.
We must admit that the gapbetween people is so big that it may sometimes exceed the gapbetween people and monkeys. A popular saying is: Even if you move forward at full speed, you may still be standing still. The biggest way for us to get rid of standing still is to learn from excellent people and achieve "the younger generation isbetter than the older generation" in several fields. In this regard, DEEPSEEK has set an example for us.
2025 is the Chinese Year of the Snake, which is also the square of 45.
风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。文章涉及的观点和判断仅代表我们对当前时点的看法，基于市场环境的不确定性和多变性，所涉观点和判断后续可能发生调整或变化。本文仅用于沟通交流之目的，不构成任何投资建议。
